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2018年02月23日 16:44:55|来源:国际在线|编辑:飞度技术永州新闻
Forget the breathless coverage of China Mobile offering the iPhone for a moment. Yes, it#39;s huge news for China#39;s biggest wireless carrier and Apple (AAPL) -- and we#39;ve heard plenty to the point. But the real game changer for China is another mobile milestone that#39;s nearly as imminent: the rollout of the faster wireless network standard 4G.中国移动(China Mobile)即将发布iPhone的消息铺天盖地,让人喘不过气来。诚然,对于世界最大的运营商中国移动和苹果公司(Apple)而言,这绝对算得上是大新闻,可惜大家早就听腻了。近来对于中国移动通信界真正的里程碑事件是——4G网络牌照即将发布。People elsewhere in the world take 4G for granted. I should know -- I once did. After 4G came to New York, my smartphone became faster than my PC. I watched Netflix (NFLX) on my iPhone. Google Maps (GOOG) search was instantaneous. Newspapers downloaded in seconds.其它国家的手机用户对4G网络已经习以为常。我以前就是这其中的一员。纽约覆盖上4G网络之后,我发现智能手机的上网速度竟然比PC机要快了。我可以在iPhone上观看Netflix视频;谷歌地图(Google Maps)的搜索速度堪称实时;而下载一份报纸只需要几秒钟。Not so in China. Here, 3G still rules. I moved to Beijing this year, and the downgrade from 4G to 3G was brutal. The same apps weren#39;t the same. Google Maps? Acceptable, but not great. Apple Newsstand: painfully slow. Yahoo Fantasy Football (YHOO) ... well, just don#39;t wait to set your rosters.但在中国,大行其道的仍是3G。我今年去北京时亲身体会了一把从4G降级至3G后的速度。同样的应用程序仿佛变了个样。谷歌地图?反应勉强能接受。苹果报刊杂志应用?速度相当悲剧。至于雅虎(Yahoo)梦幻足球游戏,就这速度还想排兵布阵?The 4G rollout in China has progressed in fits and stops. China Mobile (CHL) announced in 2012 that it would upgrade its systems to TD-LTE, a 4G standard, only to be rebuffed by government officials who worried the technology was not mature enough for the market. Delays ensued. 4G was wait-listed until now.4G在中国可谓一波三折。中国移动早在2012年就宣布将升级至TD-LTE 4G网络。但由于监管部门认为当时的4G技术不够成熟,无法推向市场,中国移动只好作罢。这一拖就拖到了现在。Last week, China took the official step of granting 4G licenses to the three big state-owned carriers, China Mobile, a giant among giants with 60% of China#39;s mobile market, China Unicom (CHU), second-largest with little over 20% share, and No. 3 China Telecom (CHA). The 4G switch is flipped on Dec. 18, when big cities will fire up the new network. (In a nod to the potential 4G offers, the Party has turned supportive. There#39;s little talk from carriers about the cost of licenses from the government, compared to the Western world where carriers spend tens of billions on new spectrum.)上周,中国工信部正式向三大国有运营商——中国移动(中国移动通信市场上的老大,约占据60%的市场份额)、中国联通(China Unicom,约占20%的市场份额)和中国电信(China Telecom)发放4G牌照。4G网络正式运营时间定在12月18日,届时一些有条件的大城市可开始切换网络。(出于对潜在4G网络的认同,中国政府开始大力持4G的发展。各大运营商提都没提政府收取4G牌照费用的事,这与西方运营商动辄花费数百亿美元购买频谱资源简直是天渊之别。)Insiders say by mid-2014, the country should be far along in adopting 4G. I met one of those insiders last night at a press event for Huawei, the Chinese maker of telecom equipment that is now competing in smartphones and tablets. (Hence, the press mixer. The company previously had little need for reporters because of its business-to-business focus.)业内人士表示,到2014年年中,中国4G网络的普及将取得很大进展。我上周四晚上在华为(Huawei)召开的新闻发布会上就见过一位这样的知情人士。华为是中国最大的通信设备制造商,如今还运营智能手机和平板业务。(这家公司这次召开新闻发布会也是一个拼盘。华为此前没什么必要同媒体打交道,因为它面向的主要是企业客户。)Qiu Heng is TDD Network Vice President at Huawei, part of the company#39;s 4G team. I asked Heng what#39;s been the most difficult part of China#39;s 4G rollout, seeing as it#39;s coming three years after 4G was adopted in the U.S. and Japan. He thinks about it for a moment. ;There has been no difficulty,; he says. This sounds improbable, and it is.华为TDD产品线副总裁邱恒是华为4G团队的一员。鉴于中国采用4G网络比美国和日本晚了三年,我问邱恒在中国部署4G网络的过程中,最大的难点是什么。他想了想,说:“没有遇到什么困难。”这话着实令人难以置信。But it#39;s true that Huawei has worked out the 4G kinks in its equipment in Japan. The 4G release in China, now that it#39;s been officially sanctioned, should be smooth, despite the massive numbers involved. China Mobile, for instance, needs to upgrade more than 200,000 base stations. (Heng points out the U.S. and Japan combined have 150,000 stations.) Software upgrades and minor hardware modifications to existing stations are enough to support 4G using Huawei#39;s technology. Reports put China Mobile#39;s cost of station upgrades at billion.不过,华为在日本确实成功推出了4G设备。既然4G网络在中国已经正式获批,那么尽管涉及的基站数目庞大,4G网络的推出仍然应当十分顺利。举例来说,中国移动需要升级20多万个基站。(邱恒指出,美国和日本总共才有15万座基站。)借助华为的技术,只需对现有基站进行软件升级和小的硬件改造,就能持4G网络。报道称,中国移动的基站升级成本约为30亿美元。This is a game changer, Heng says. For the first time Chinese consumers will be able to consistently watch on their phones. Mobile shopping, aly popular, should grow faster with faster speeds. Media, entertainment, and other commerce should all experience a new era in China.邱恒称4G网络的普及将带来颠覆性的影响。中国消费者将能够在手机上持续的观看视频。已经流行的手机购物将加速发展。媒体、以及中国的其他行业都将进入一个新的时代。Bigger than the iPhone release, I ask Heng? He nods his head yes.我问邱恒,4G网络是不是比中国移动开卖苹果iPhone的意义还要重大?他点头表示赞同。 /201312/269575

This is how quickly fortunes change in the smartphone industry. In 2006, Nokia (NOK) still controlled more than half of the share of the smartphone market. The iPhone wouldn#39;t appear until the summer of 2007. And no one was making Android phones. Android Inc., bought by Google (GOOG) in 2005, wouldn#39;t emerge as a player until HTC released the Dreamsmartphone in the fall of 2008.在智能手机行业,运气来得快去得也快。就在2006年的时候,诺基亚(Nokia)还控制着智能手机市场的大半壁江山。iPhone直到2007年夏天才出现。当时安卓(Android)手机甚至还没有面世。安卓公司于2005年被谷歌(Goolge)收购,但是直到宏达电(HTC)在2008年秋天推出Dream智能手机,安卓才作为一个竞争者进入了市场。Android, of course, would go on to dominate the global smartphone market, powering 70% of smartphones shipped in the last quarter of 2012. Five years ago, Android was an open-source mobile OS offered to device manufacturers that wanted to take on Nokia, Apple (AAPL), and BlackBerry (BBRY). It was the OS supporting the Open Handset Alliance, whose members included manufacturers like HTC, Samsung, and Motorola.去年第四季度,全球智能手机出货量中70%安装的都是安卓系统,因此安卓毫无疑问还会继续主宰全球智能手机市场。五年前,安卓作为一个开源移动操作系统平台,被提供给那些想与诺基亚、苹果(Apple)和黑莓(Blackberry)分一杯羹的手机厂商。它也是开放手机联盟的代表系统,而这个开放手机联盟的成员则包括HTC、三星(Samsung)和托罗拉(Motorola)等大牌厂商。Early on, HTC emerged as the company most likely to succeed as the big maker of Android phones. Not only because of the Dream -- the inaugural Android smartphone -- but also theNexus One, Google#39;s first attempt to design its own smartphone. Android may have been an open OS, but it needed a leader. Early on, HTC looked to be that leader. Instead, it#39;s Samsung that is ruling the Android empire in 2013.起初,HTC似乎是最有可能获得巨大成功的安卓厂商。这不仅仅是因为它的Dream手机开创了安卓时代的先河,同时也因为谷歌的第一个“亲儿子”Nexus 1就是HTC代工的。虽然安卓是个开源平台,但是它也需要一个领头羊。在早期的安卓时代,HTC貌似就是那只领头羊。到了2013年,三星则成了安卓王国的霸主。And what of HTC? By recent numbers, it#39;s ailing. According to comScore, its share of U.S. smartphone subscribers fell 1.3 percentage points to 9.3% in the three months through February, a bigger decline than Motorola (now owned by Google). Samsung saw its share grow by 1 percentage point and Apple by 4 points. Measured by global smartphone shipments, according to Barclays Research, HTC may drop to No. 10 this year.HTC怎么了?从最近的数据看,它显然存在一些问题。根据康姆斯科公司(comScore)的数据,去年12月及今年1、2月份,HTC在美国智能手机用户中的占有率降低了1.3个百分点,降至9.3%,跌幅甚至超过了被谷歌收购的托罗拉。同一时期,三星的占有率上升了1%,苹果的占有率上升了4%。根据巴克莱研究公司(Barclays Research)的数据,HTC今年的全球手机出货量可能会跌至第十位。Last week, HTC pre-announced its first-quarter earnings, and the news wasn#39;t good. Net income declined 98% to NT million (.8 million), well below analyst estimates of NT0 million. Revenue fell 37% to NT.8 million. The quarter marked the sixth straight decline in profit for the Taiwan-based company.上周,HTC提前宣布了今年第一季度的收益,成绩并不喜人。第一季度HTC的净收入为8500万新台币(合280万美元),下降了98%,远远低于分析师预测的6亿新台币。其第一季度营收为4280万新台币,下跌了37%。这已经是HTC连续第六个季度收益持续下跌了。For some, the disappointing news was another sign that HTC#39;s ship is sinking. Most of the disappointing profit centered around the delayed release of the HTC One phone, an Android phone with an attractive display screen that had been winning largely positive reviews. A shortage of cameras reportedly forced the delay of the new phones. Smartphone makers don#39;t just have to compete for consumers, they also often compete for components.另一个让人沮丧的信号是HTC的出货量也在下降。首先,利润下降的主要原因是HTC One手机的推迟出货。HTC One搭载了一块十分吸引人的显示屏,近来受到了不少好评。据说摄相头供应不足是导致出货推迟的主要原因。智能手机厂家们不仅要为争抢消费者而竞争,还得为了抢零部件而竞争。The HTC One was supposed to release in March, several weeks ahead of Samsung#39;s new smartphone -- the Galaxy S4, which had also won strong early reviews and received a fair amount of attention now that Samsung has emerged as a rival to Apple. Having a head start of a month could help HTC steal thunder and show that it was making a big step forward with its smartphones. Instead, the HTC One was delayed until April, with shipment expected to begin this week.HTC One本来定在今年三月份发布,比三星的最新型号Galaxy S4还早了几周。随着三星成为苹果日益强大的竞争对手,其新发布的Galaxy S4手机也获得了不少好评和关注。如果能提前一个月发布HTC One手机,将有助于HTC抢占市场先机,并明自己在智能手机研发上走在了行业前列。可惜HTC One的发布被延期到4月,而且预计本周才会发货开卖。HTC#39;s stock closed down 2.2% on the day it announced those numbers. But it ended up rallying 8.5% over the next four days, closing the week at NT1.50. That rally appeared to be sparked by the positive reception of Facebook Home, Facebook#39;s (FB) effort to coopt Android#39;s OS to create a front-end interface designed around its own social network. Another HTC phone, the First, was presented as the first Facebook Home phone, although Home will be dowloadable to other Android phones.HTC宣布第一季度收的当日,其股价以下跌2.2个百分点收盘,不过在接下来的四天里又逆势上扬8.5%,本周收于261.50元新台币。这次股价上扬可能是由于Facebook与HTC合作的Facebook Home系统受到了好评的缘故。而HTC First手机则成为第一款持Facebook Home的手机。不过以后Facebook Home将也可以下载到其它手机上。Still, the decline in its market share has brought HTC#39;s stock down significantly from its levels in recent years, trading 80% below the high point of NT,300 in April 2011. The One is intended to turn that around, with its impressive display, a casing designed to rival that of the iPhone, and an image processor chip that HTC made in-house.尽管如此,由于HTC手机的市场份额不断下降,该公司的股价近年来也明显下跌,从2011年4月顶峰时的1300元新台币下跌了80%。HTC希望凭借HTC One手机扭转颓势,因此给HTC One配备了一块性能超强的显示屏、一个意在与iPhone竞争的铝合金机身、以及HTC自家生产的图形处理芯片。Wall Street analysts remain divided on HTC#39;s outlook, but most feel the One would have a bigger impact on its fate than the First. J.P. Morgan, which described the One as HTC#39;s ;last chance for a turnaround,; said in a report last week that ;early signs of order rates are very strong; and could deliver 50% growth in revenue this quarter over the previous quarter. Others, like Goldman Sachs, were concerned that the supply-chain issues that delayed the One could continue to be a factor.华尔街的分析师们对HTC的展望持分歧态度,不过大多数分析师都认为,HTC One对该公司的影响将大于HTC First。根大通公司(J. P. Morgan)在上周的一份报告中称HTC One是HTC公司“翻身的最后一次机会”,还称“从早期迹象看,它的订购率很强势”,并表示本季度HTC的营收可能会比上季度增长50%。高盛等公司则认为,造成HTC One出货延迟的供应链问题仍是一个不稳定因素。HTC#39;s One is the company#39;s best chance to win back market share. The company#39;s new marketing chief recently promised a louder voice and bolder approach in reaching out to consumers in a market flooded with Android phones. Last week, to promote the HTC One, the company launched an ad campaign mocking reality TV shows on sites like Funny or Die.HTC One是宏达电赢回市场份额的最好机会。HTC的新任市场总监最近表示,在这个安卓手机多如牛毛的市场中,HTC将更大声、更大胆地迎合消费者。上周为了推广HTC One,HTC公司还在Funny or Die等网站上发布了一个恶搞电视真人秀的广告。In the smartphone market, consumer tastes are just fickle enough to make HTC a winner again. For now, the Android manufacturer that once seemed most likely to succeed is just fighting to stay in the game.在智能手机市场上,消费者的口味是非常善变的,这完全有可能使HTC再次成为赢家。不过目前,这家一度曾是最有希望成功的安卓手机厂商还得先为生存而战。 /201304/235831

Could Alibaba be China#39;s next 0 billion stock market listing? The Hangzhou-based e-commerce giant continues to be coy over when it will take the plunge. But sooner or later founder Jack Ma will need to offer some kind of exit for his backers, not to mention employees, and an initial public offering is the most likely solution. Now is a good time to start asking how the company should be valued.阿里巴巴(Alibaba)能否成为中国下一家千亿美元级别的上市公司?何时迈出这关键的一步?这家位于杭州的电子商务巨头对这个问题依然含糊其辞。但公司创始人马云迟早需要为投资者提供退路,更不用提公司的员工了。因此,首次公开募股将是最有可能的解决方案。公司应该获得怎样的估值?目前应该是开始思考这个问题的时候了。Alibaba#39;s main business is selling. Its Tmall online stores provide a shop front for brands like Nike (NKE) and Unilever (UL), while Taobao is focused on consumer-to-consumer trade. The closest U.S. peers might be Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY). Sadly for valuation purposes, there#39;s no perfect match: unlike Amazon, Alibaba doesn#39;t hold inventory or manage warehouses, and unlike eBay, it gets most of its revenue from advertising, not charging users.阿里巴巴的主营业务是销售。它的在线商城天猫(Tmall)为耐克(Nike)和联合利华(Unilever)等品牌提供了一个网络店面,而淘宝则主要用于C2C交易。和它最为接近的同行应该是亚马逊(Amazon)和eBay。可惜的是,在估值方面,并没有一家与阿里巴巴完美匹配的公司:与亚马逊不同,阿里巴巴并未持有库存或管理仓库;而与eBay不同,阿里巴巴公司的大多数收入都来自广告,而不是用户收费。Meanwhile, its range of services gets ever wider, and potentially harder to value. As well as accounting for the majority of China#39;s e-commerce, a market worth 4 billion last year according to the China Internet Network Information Centre, Alibaba now has a mobile operating system, offers trade financing to vendors and may even start offering consumer loans. The company#39;s chief strategist says it aims to be ;the world#39;s biggest data sharing platform.;与此同时,它的业务范围却变得日益广泛,这也可能使估值变得更加困难。阿里巴巴占据着中国电子商务市场的大部分份额。而据中国互联网信息中心(China Internet Network Information Centre)统计,去年中国电子商务市值为2,040亿美元。如今,阿里巴巴有一个移动操作系统,为供应商提供贸易融资,甚至可能开始提供消费贷款。公司首席策略师称,公司的目的是打造“全球最大的数据共享平台”。Fortunately, there are two numbers that really matter. One is how much Alibaba can sell. The other is its ;take,; or what percentage it gets from each transaction on its sites. That take might come through advertising or through transaction fees, or a mixture of both. But ultimately, it represents the cash the company can squeeze out of its sellers. Other services like lending may create revenue, but for now they are mainly ways to lock in users and maintain market share.好在有两个数据非常重要。一个是阿里巴巴能卖多少钱。另外一个则是公司的“提成”,即公司通过在它网站上完成的每笔交易中抽取的百分比。提成可能通过广告或交易手续费的形式,也可能综合两种方式。但最终,它代表了公司能够从卖家手中抽取的现金。其他务,例如借贷等也可能带来收入。但在目前,它们主要只是留住用户、维持市场份额的主要手段而已。Consider a back-of-envelope valuation exercise. The first question is how big the overall market can get. Say e-commerce in China grows 35% a year for the next two years, and that Alibaba can keep its current market share of around 80%. That would give it just under 0 billion of transactions in 2014 - over four times what eBay#39;s marketplaces handled in 2012.我们来粗略估算一下它的市值。第一个问题是,总体市场能够变得多大。假设未来两年,中国电子商务以35%的速度增长,而阿里巴巴仍能够保持目前约80%的市场份额。这将使它在2014年获得价值接近3,000亿美元的交易——超过2012年eBay市场份额的四倍。In reality, many more factors will affect Alibaba#39;s magic number. Ma will need to time the stock market cycle, but also the tech cycle. With many foreign backers, Alibaba will most likely need to list on foreign markets, where stock buyers will be influenced by what they think of China#39;s regulation, economy and accounting practices. Valuations for companies like Baidu, Renren and Sina show gyrations not always explained by the performance of their underlying businesses.现实情况下,会有更多因素影响阿里巴巴的市值。马云必须抓住股市周期与技术周期的时机。阿里巴巴有许多外国投资者,因此,它最有可能在海外市场上市。而在外国市场,股票投资者往往会受到自身对中国的法规、经济与会计实务看法的影响。百度(Baidu)、人人(Renren)和新浪(Sina)等公司的估值所表现出的摇摆不定通常很难用各公司基本业务的表现来解释。Valuations change quickly. Facebook#39;s went from billion in its fundraising at the end of 2010 to 4 billion at its IPO in 2012; the company now trades at just two-thirds that value. When Yahoo (YHOO) recently sold half its Alibaba stake back to the company, the deal valued the company at just billion. But a bilateral negotiation by with a troubled U.S. company is very different than a stock market listing.估值变化很快。2010年底,Facebook在融资时的估值为500亿美元,而在2012年IPO时则达到了1,040亿美元;但目前,它的股价仅有当初估值的三分之二。最近,雅虎(Yahoo)将手头持有的阿里巴巴股份中的一半出售给了阿里巴巴公司,交易对公司市值的认定是400亿美元。然而,与一家陷入困境的美国公司进行双边谈判跟上市比起来完全是两码事。Besides, internet companies are inherently volatile. Super profitability attracts super competition, and disruptive technologies can take even established models by surprise. Netscape and Microsoft both showed how supposedly unassailable market positions can be lost as well as won. If a twelve-digit valuation is within reach, it makes sense for Alibaba to open the cave sooner rather than later.此外,互联网公司的性质决定了它内在的不稳定性。超强的盈利能力也会吸引超强的竞争对手,而且颠覆性技术可能在突然之间就取代了业已成熟的模式。当年的网景(Netscape)和微软(Microsoft)就充分明,想象中不可动摇的市场地位可能瞬间就会易手。如果公司估值能够达到十二位数,上市就宜早不宜迟。 /201305/237653

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