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无锡生痔疮了治疗医院要多少钱无锡哪个医院治疗肠道疾病比较好,Few years in recent decades dawned with as much of a sense of pessimism as 2014. One consistent theme in the predictions for the year was that 2014 looked eerily similar to 1914. Most pundits predicted doom and gloom, especially in east Asia. Yet, while there were many horrific events from thedowning of flight MH17 over Ukraine, to the abduction of hundreds of schoolgirls in Nigeria and the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant we have avoided outright world war. Now that the year is closed, with no repetition of 1914, it may be wise to investigate why the pundits were wrong, particularly on their ideas around the potential for conflict in Asia.近几十年来,很少有年份像2014年那样一开始就充满那么多的悲观情绪。对2014年的预测贯穿了一个主题,即这一年看起来914年相似得让人害怕。大多数学者的预测都是悲观和令人沮丧的,尤其是对于东亚。然而,虽然发生了许多可怕的事件——从马航MH17航班在乌克兰坠落,到尼日利亚数百女学生被绑架,以及“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国Isis)的崛起——但我们避免了全面的世界大战。现在,2014年已结束,没有重914年的悲剧。探究为什么这些学者预测错了(特别是他们认为亚洲存在冲突可能性的想法)或许是明智的。These were no lightweight pundits. The eminent historian Margaret MacMillan, in an essay for Brookings in December 2013, said, “We are witnessing, as much as the world of 1914, shifts in the international power structure, with emerging powers challenging the established ones.She added, “the same is happening between the US and China now, and also between China and Japan and also said that “there is potential for conflict between China and two of its other neighbours Vietnam and Malaysia as well.”这些专家都不是轻量级的。杰出的历史学家玛格丽特#8226;麦克米伦(Margaret MacMillan)0132月的一篇为布鲁金斯学会(Brookings)撰写的文章中说:“像1914年的世界一样,我们正在经历国际权力结构的转换,新兴大国正在挑战老牌大国。”她补充说,“如今,同样的一幕正发生在美国与中国,以及中国与日本之间”,同时她还表示,“中国与它另外两个邻国——越南和马来西亚——也有爆发冲突的可能性。”Graham Allison, the famous Harvard professor, also warned that east Asia was headed towards the “Thucydides Trap adding: “When a rapidly rising power rivals an established ruling power, trouble ensues.In early 2013, the then prime minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, warned that 2013 was looking dangerously like 1913. The Economist also warned at the end of 2013, “A century on, there are uncomfortable parallels with the era that led to the outbreak of the first world war.”哈佛大学著名教授格雷厄#8226;阿利Graham Allison)也警告说,东亚已走向“修昔底德陷阱Thucydides’s trap),他并补充道:“当一个迅速崛起的大国与一个老牌霸权国竞争时,麻烦接踵而来。013年初,时任卢森堡首相的让-克洛#8226;容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)警告称,2013年看起来913年一样危险013年底,《经济学人》杂The Economist)也警告说,“一个世纪已过去,当今世界却与那个导致第一次世界大战爆发的时代有不少相似之处,令人不安。”I experienced this pessimism personally in Davos in January 2014. Several leading western intellectuals asked me whether war would break out between China and Japan. I was so confident that there would be no war in east Asia that I offered to take bets with ten-to-one odds against myself with eminent western journalists. Two took up my bets. And I will be collecting on these bets when I return to Davos in January.2014月,我在达沃斯亲身感受到了这种悲观情绪。几位著名西方学者问我中国和日本之间是否会爆发战争。我非常有信心东亚不会发生战争,以至于我提出0的赔率与西方知名记者们打赌。两位记者接受了我的赌约。今月回到达沃斯时,我将收取他们的赌注。Why was I so confident that there would be no war in east Asia, either in the East China Sea or the South China Sea? The simple answer is that I know the Asian dynamic. While many Asian neighbours will make angry nationalist statements (and they have to do so to manage popular nationalist sentiments), they are also careful and pragmatic in their deeds.为什么我如此有信心东亚不会爆发战争,无论在东中国海还是南中国海?很简单,因为我了解推动亚洲变化的力量。虽然许多亚洲邻国会发出愤怒的民族主义声明(他们必须这样做来应对普遍的民族主义情绪),但他们的行动是谨慎和务实的。For over two decades I have been writing about the rise of Asia and the dynamic driving it. There is an extraordinary consensus among east Asian leaders that Asia needs to use this window of opportunity to focus on economic development and growth. War is the biggest obstacle to development. If Asians were truly stupid, they would engage in such wars and derail their enormous development promise. Most Asian leaders, barring North Korea, understand well the dangers of war. Hence, while there will be tensions and rivalries in the region, there will be no wars in the region, in 2014 or in 2015. As 2015 unfolds, I would like to encourage all western pundits to understand the underlying Asian dynamic on its own terms, and not on the basis of western preconceptions.过去二十多年间,我一直在写关于亚洲崛起及其推动力量的文章。东亚各国领导人之间有一个了不起的共识:亚洲需要利用当前的机会之窗,把重点放在经济发展和增长上。战争是发展的最大阻碍。如果亚洲人真的愚蠢,他们或会卷入这样的战争,破坏自己巨大的发展前景。大多数亚洲国家(除了朝鲜)的领导人,都很明白战争的危险。因此,虽然这一地区会出现局势紧张和对抗,但无论014年还015年都不会爆发战争。随着2015年缓缓展开,我想鼓励所有西方学者根据亚洲本身的情况理解亚洲的根本发展动力,而非将理解建立在西方先入之见的基础上。来 /201501/352905常州市第七人民医院看脱肛多少钱 Three days after Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov was slain by at least four bullets in the back outside the walls of the Kremlin, there is no trace of his killer.在俄罗斯反对派政治人物鲍里斯#8226;涅姆佐夫(Boris Nemtsov)遇害三天之后,杀害他的杀手依然毫无线索。三天前,涅姆佐夫在克里姆林宫墙外,被至颗子弹从背后杀。But politicians, activists and observers critical of President Vladimir Putin agree that, whoever pulled the trigger, Nemtsov fell victim to a climate of hate and fear that the authorities have fanned in Russia since the revolution in Ukraine and Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.不过,对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)持批评态度的政客、社会活动人士和观察家都认同这样一种看法:不论谁是杀害涅姆佐夫的凶手,涅姆佐夫都是乌克兰危机以来俄罗斯仇恨与恐惧氛围的牺牲品,而这种氛围正是俄罗斯当局在俄罗斯国内煽动起来的。乌克兰危机的发端,则始于乌克兰革命和俄罗斯对克里米亚的吞并。Mr Putin’s opponents had been under growing pressure since his return to the presidential office in 2012. But after Ukraine’s political upheavals began, this pressure turned into open threats.012年普京再次当选总统以来,普京的反对者遭遇的压力越来越大。而在乌克兰开始出现政治动荡以后,这种压力变成了公然威胁。Vladimir Ryzhkov, a long-time friend of Nemtsov and co-chairman of his political party, said the state and state-run media had both presented liberal opposition figures as traitors and enemies and implicitly encouraged violence against them.涅姆佐夫长期密友、其所在政党的联席主席弗拉基米#8226;雷日科夫(Vladimir Ryzhkov)表示,俄罗斯政府和官方媒体都把自由主义反对派人士说成是叛国者和敌人,并隐性鼓励针对他们的暴力活动。“In Soviet times, the state had a monopoly of force,he said. “Now we don’t have such a monopoly. We have violence from the top, threats from the top, and an amazing threat from the bottom. We have all kinds of nationalist groups, radicals, military veterans, sports clubs. And any group could use violence against those who they think are enemies of Russia.”他说:“在苏联时代,政府垄断了武力。如今,这种垄断不复存在了。我们面临的是来自高层的暴力、来自高层的威胁、以及来自底层的惊人威胁。我们拥有各种民族主义团体、激进分子、老兵、俱乐部。任何组织都可能对那些认为是俄罗斯敌人的人使用暴力。”A year ago, Andrei Kovalenko, a Russian nationalist youth leader, told a crowd of screaming supporters that if Mr Putin did not deal with a “Fifth Columnof liberal opposition figures, things would end, as in 1917, with the downfall of the regime.一年前,俄罗斯民族主义青年领袖安德#8226;科瓦连科(Andrei Kovalenko)曾向尖叫着的持者表示,如果普京不处理自由主义反对派组成的“第五纵队”,俄罗斯政权会917年那样以垮台告终。“Vladimir Vladimirovich! Just give an order!he shouted. “We can’t wait for your ‘Fass!’he shouted, using a German-language command for dogs to attack.“弗拉基米尔#8226;弗拉基米罗维奇!(Vladimir Vladimirovich,此处使用了普京的父名,表示对他的尊重——译者注)只要下达一个指令就好!”他高声叫喊,“我们已经等不及您说出‘Fass!’”这是德语中命令去攻击他人的词语。Mr Kovalenko is a disciple of Alexander Dugin, a nationalist ideologue long seen as a marginal figure but who trumpeted after the Crimea annexation that Mr Putin was now following his line.科瓦连科是倡导民族主义思想的理论家亚历山大#8226;杜金(Alexander Dugin)的追随者。杜金长期以来都被视为边缘人物,但在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后,杜金曾鼓吹称普京现在奉行着他的路线。The president encouraged such notions by echoing some of the extremistslanguage. In a speech celebrating the Crimean annexation last March, he included a warning against those who might oppose it, calling them “national traitorsand a “fifth column普京曾在讲话中采用了部分极端分子的措辞,从而纵容了这种观念。去月,普京发表了一篇庆祝吞并克里米亚的演讲,向可能反对这一做法的人发出了警告,称他们是“国家叛徒”和“第五纵队”。Meanwhile, ideologues bashing the liberal opposition have become fixtures on state media, still the main source of information for most of the Russian population. A group of prominent television and radio managers set the tone with news presentations full of insinuations. Dmitry Kiselyov, head of the state news group Rossiya Segodnya, whom the EU put on its sanctions list last year, is the most prominent.同时,各种理论家对自由主义反对派的猛烈抨击,已成为官方媒体的固定节目。目前,俄罗斯官方媒体仍是大多数俄罗斯人获取信息的主要来源。多家著名电视台和电台主管则用充满逢迎和影射的新闻报道左右了舆论的走向。国家新闻社“今日俄罗斯Rossiya Segodnya)社长德米特里#8226;基谢廖夫(Dmitry Kiselyov)是其中最突出的一个,去年他被欧盟(EU)列入制裁名单。Mr Putin’s regime has also taken the struggle to the streets. In January, a smattering of nationalist groupings, veteransassociations and lawmakers from the pro-presidential ed Russia party set up what they called a “social movementcalled Anti-Maidan.普京当局还将争斗引上了街头。今月,亲普京的统一俄罗斯党(ed Russia)党内的少数民族主义团体、老兵协会和议员,成立了一个名为“反广场革命”组织的所谓“社会运动”。A week before Nemtsov’s death, the association staged a large-scale march with government support through Moscow. Participants pledged to fight the kind of democratic change that occurred in Ukraine, western values and anyone who would stand up for them in Russia.在涅姆佐夫遇害前一周,该组织在全莫斯科发起了一场得到政府持的大规模游行。参与者发誓要与乌克兰那种民主变革、与西方价值、以及与俄罗斯国内任何拥护以上两者的人作斗争。“People were openly calling from the stage to ‘take care ofthe liberals,said Mikhail Kasyanov, a former prime minister under Mr Putin and another close associate of Nemtsov. “There were even signs saying, ‘Let’s destroy the Fifth Column”“在台上,人们公开叫嚷着要‘收拾’自由主义者,”涅姆佐夫的另一位密友、曾在普京政府中担任总理的米哈伊#8226;卡西亚诺Mikhail Kasyanov)说,“甚至还有标语上写着,‘让我们打垮第五纵队’。”Marching in the front row was Alexander Zaldostanov, leader of the Night Wolves bikersgroup, which observers say has styled itself into crusaders for Russian greatness and Russian values.走在游行队伍前列的是亚历山大#8226;扎多斯塔诺夫(Alexander Zaldostanov)。他是托车俱乐部“夜狼Night Wolves)的领袖。观察家称,该俱乐部已将自身标榜成为俄罗斯的强盛和俄罗斯价值奔走的圣战组织。Mr Kasyanov said opposition leaders had faced lower-level harassment since the mid-2000s, and he and many others were followed by members of Nashi, the pro-Kremlin youth group created after the 2004 Orange revolution in Ukraine. But the Anti-Maidan movement was much more sinister.卡西亚诺夫表示,在本世纪头十年中期,反对派领袖们开始面临更为下作的滋扰。他和其他许多人曾被持俄政府的青年团体“纳什”(Nashi, 俄语意为“我们”)的成员跟踪。该团体成立004年乌克兰“橙色革命Orange Revolution)之后。而相比之下,“反广场革命”运动要比“纳什”邪恶得多。Ksenia Sobchak, the socialite and journalist who has floated between the establishment close to Mr Putin and the opposition, was one of the first to link this environment to Nemtsov’s death.游走于当权的普京拥护者和反对派之间的记者和社会名流塞梅#8226;索布恰克(Ksenia Sobchak),是率先将这种氛围与涅姆佐夫之死联系起来的人之一。The Kremlin’s efforts to defeat the 2012 protest movement against Mr Putin through an ideological war had created a “chaos of hate,she wrote on her blog. She added that the president had “built an infernal terminator over which he has lost control.”她在客里写道:克里姆林宫试图通过意识形态之战挫012年反普京抗议活动的举动,造成了一种“仇恨乱局”。她还补充道,普京“制造了一个他已经控制不了的可怕的终结者”。Political analysts are not surprised. Some argue that the Anti-Maidan movement is a logical continuation of the regime’s earlier attempts to steer public sentiment through groups such as Nashi.对此,政治分析人士并不感到意外。有些人说,普京当局之前就试图通过纳什这类组织引导公众情绪,反广场革命运动是对这种努力的自然延续。Andrei Kolesnikov, from the Carnegie Moscow Center, said: “The atmosphere we have now is artificial in the sense that it has been created by the propaganda. But it is also natural in the sense that people ily accept it.”莫斯科卡内基中Moscow Carnegie Center)的安德烈#8226;科列斯尼科夫(Andrei Kolesnikov)说:“目前这种氛围是通过宣传手段营造的,从此种意义上说,这种氛围是人为的。但从,人们对此欣然接受,又表明它是自然而然产生的。”Mr Kolesnikov said the role such groups played in Russian politics and society had become similar to groupings used by the Nazi regime to intimidate and persecute opponents in the early years of its rule.科列斯尼科夫表示,这类组织在俄罗斯政治和社会中扮演的角色,已变得和纳粹政权曾利用过的组织十分类似。在纳粹统治早期,那些组织被用来恐吓和迫害反对者。Mr Kasyanov said: “The government has to stop encouraging this propaganda, this language of traitors and the Fifth Column. If they don’t, things will become even more dangerous. It will be open season.”卡西亚诺夫表示:“政府必须停止对这种宣传方式、对‘叛徒’和‘第五纵队’这类措辞方式的纵容。否则,事态将变得越发危险。各种攻讦言论将肆意横流。”来 /201503/363283无锡湿疹治疗医院要多少钱

无锡怎么治疗肛周脓肿好无锡怎么治疗直肠息肉 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has sent his all-female pop propaganda band to China in an apparent effort to boost relations with his traditional ally.朝鲜领导人金正恩派出他的女子流行乐团到中国演出,有明显意图欲修复与传统盟友中国的关系。The Moranbong Band, which was reputedly handpicked by Mr Kim, is to give ;friendship performances; along with the State Merited Chorus - an army orchestra - the official news agency KCNA reports. Clad in military-style uniforms, the musicians were seen off at Pyongyang station by senior party officials and the Chinese ambassador, underlining the importance of the groups first tour abroad.牡丹峰乐团,被称是应朝鲜最高领导人金正恩指示成立的乐团,将与“功勋国家合唱团”一起进行“友好演出”,据朝鲜中央新闻社报道。乐团成员们身着军装制,从平壤站出发,党内高层官员和中国驻朝鲜大使等为访问团送别,强调了该乐团第一次出国演出的重要性。Its seen as the latest sign that the two countries longstanding alliance is on the mend again, after being strained by North Koreas third nuclear test in 2013. The band will appear at the National Centre for the Performing Arts in Beijing from 12 to 14 December, according to Chinas Xinhua agency.013年朝鲜进行第三次核实验后,中朝两国关系一直紧张,这次公演被视为两国的长期联盟关系正在修补的最新迹象。据新华社报道,朝鲜乐团将会2214日在北京国家大剧院进行公演。Last in the international news in September, when rumours of their disappearance and possible fall from grace turned out to be greatly exaggerated, Moranbong were formed at Kim Jong-uns order in 2012 out of an ensemble favoured by his deceased father, Kim Jong-il.此前已备受金正恩已故的父亲金正日的喜爱,2012年在金正恩的指示下成立了牡丹峰乐团。在九月的国际新闻上,牡丹峰乐团从荧屏上消失和可能失宠的传闻被严重夸大。They are known - at least by the authoritarian states staid standards - for their energetic, almost Western-style performances. Songs include typical North Korea propaganda items such as We Think of the Marshall (Mr Kim) Day and Night and My Country is the Best!, but also more surprising Western-inspired numbers, including the Theme from Rocky.他们是非常受追捧-至少以专制国家古板的标准衡量—她们的朝气蓬勃,和几乎西方式的舞台风格。表演歌曲包括典型的朝鲜歌曲《金正日将军之歌》《祖国赞歌》,还有更让人惊讶的西方歌曲如the Theme from Rocky等。来 /201512/415078无锡肛肠科那家医院好

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