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萍乡安源区湘东区莲花县去哪家医院能做复通手术江西省检查激素费用There is an old rule that economists follow: In making a forecast, give a number or a date—but not both. It is a rule that executives in the autindustry ignore with surprising frequency. In instances involving Volvand Tesla TSLA -1.82% , twcompanies whose names are seldom spoken in the same breath, the lack of caution in setting future sales targets may cause them more trouble than a mere fender bender.经济学家通常会遵守一条老规矩:做预测时,要么给个数字,要么给个日期,但不能两个都给。但汽车业的高管们却经常忽略这条法则。就以沃尔沃(Volvo)和特斯拉(Tesla)为例,这两家公司的名字很少会被拿出来相提并论,但是他们在设置未来的销售目标时都缺乏谨慎,这或许会给他们带来大麻烦。After years of drift, VolvCars is trying trebuild its product line under its Chinese owners Geely Motors. Nlonger content tbe solely identified as a maker of boxy station wagons, Volvhas set its sights on becoming a full-fledged luxury manufacturer—on the same level as the industry’s top producers.经过多年的浮浮沉沉,沃尔沃被新东家中国吉利汽车(Geely Motors)收购后,正在重新构建产品线。沃尔沃不想再被认为只是一家旅行车制造商,而是着眼于成为一个货真价实的豪华车厂家,与其他顶级豪车品牌平起平坐。Its goals are ambitious, aggressive, and yes, audacious. Leading the effort treach them is CEHakan Samuelsson, whcame tVolvfrom Munich-based truck maker MAN in 2009. In an interview with Automotive News, Samuelsson set unexpectedly steep targets for Volvo’s recovery. Among the highlights:它的目标雄心勃勃,激进,甚至可以说大胆。现任CEO哈肯o萨缪尔森于2009年从慕尼黑卡车制造企业MAN公司跳槽至沃尔沃,在近日接受《汽车新闻》(Automotive News)采访时,萨缪尔森意外地给沃尔沃的复苏设置了非常大胆的目标,其中包括:A return tannual U.S. sales of 100,000 plus by 2016;到2016年,使沃尔沃在美国市场的年销量恢复到10万台以上;Arrival in the “elite pantheon of global luxury brands” in three tfour years;3至4年内,进入“全球豪车品牌的精英梯队”;Achievement of 800,000 in global sales in 2020.到2020年,全球销量达到80万台。Developing a true luxury brand that commands a premium price on the strength of its name can’t be done overnight, as Volvshould know. When he was running Lincoln, Jim Farley, whnow heads Ford Europe, used testimate that 15 t20 years would be required televate Lincoln intthe ranks of luxury players. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, the only three authentic members of the group (excluding exotics like Ferrari and smaller makers like Jaguar) have been at it for decades and have earned their pedigrees with achievements in racing as well as in engineering and technology. Even Lexus doesn’t qualify for this elite grouping because of its weak standing outside the U.S and its lack of any racing credentials.开发一款真正能卖出高价的豪车品牌并非一夜之功,沃尔沃应该清楚这个道理。现任福特公司(Ford)欧洲负责人的吉姆o法利在之前运营林肯品牌时曾经预测道,要让林肯跻身豪华品牌之列,可能需要15至20年的时间。不算法拉利(Farrari)等超跑品牌和捷豹(Jaguar)等小型厂商,目前市场上真正算是豪华品牌的只有奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)、宝马(BMW)和奥迪(Audi),他们已经雄据豪车市场几十年了,而且是靠工艺、科技,甚至是赛车领域的全面成就才有了今天的优势。连雷克萨斯(Lexus)都算不上是高端市场的“第一梯队”,因为它在美国以外市场的美誉度较弱,而且它在赛车领域缺乏建树。Getting tthe top tier requires a financial commitment that Volvhasn’t made. Cadillac has invested billions of dollars in new models since 2000 in a bid tregain its luxury standing and still has more tdo; it is now developing a V-8 powered flagship sedan for 2016. Volvo’s flagship is the 2015 XC90 sport utility, which is powered by a far-less imposing inline four-cylinder engine.要想进入“第一梯队”,需要在财政上做出大量投资,而沃尔沃目前还没有进行这样的投资。自从2000年以来,凯迪拉克(Cadillac)已经投资数十亿美元以重振其豪华品牌的地位,目前仍然有很多工作要做。现在,凯迪拉克正在为2016年研发一款V8引擎的旗舰车型。沃尔沃目前的旗舰车型是2015款XC90 SUV,搭载的是魅力小得多的四缸发动机。Volvhasn’t made its quixotic quest any easier with its recent performance. While it claims a long list of safety firsts—three-point seatbelts, rear-facing child seats, air bags—Volvcars have always been positioned as sub- luxury or “entry luxe”, marketed tbody of devoted fans whfavor practicality over prestige and performance. Volvwas neglected during its years of ownership by Ford (1999-2010), as its product cycles stretched out longer and longer and other makers caught up on the safety front. 2007, and sfar this year its sales have reached only 47,823 (vs. 52, 112 for the same period in 2013).同时,沃尔沃最近的表现也不令人看好它的唐吉诃德式目标。虽然沃尔沃标榜它拥有一长串安全创新,比如三点式安全带、向后儿童座椅和各种气囊,但沃尔沃的车型还是经常被定位为“次豪华”或是“入门级豪车”,瞄准的往往是那些更注重实用性而不是声誉和性能的消费者。在老东家福特旗下时(1999至2010年),它的产品周期拉得越来越长,同时其他厂商也在安全性上追赶了上来,沃尔沃逐渐被市场忽视了。今年至今为止,它的销量只有47,823辆(去年同期有52,112辆)。Samuelsson is pinning his hopes on the belief that Volvo’s squeaky-clean reputation, which served it swell in the past, will resonate with a new generation of buyers. “If you look at what is happening in society, our brand promise is in line with developments,” he said in the interview. “People want tshow that they are taking responsibility for safety and taking responsibility for the environment. I think in the future that will more and more be a premium value.”沃尔沃一向以“极其环保”著称,这种声誉曾经让该公司受益良多。这次萨缪尔森也对这种声誉寄予厚望,希望它能引起新一代消费者的共鸣。他在采访中表示:“如果你注意社会目前的发展动向,你就会发现我们的品牌承诺与这种态势是一致的。人们想要展示他们正在对安全和环境负责。我认为在未来,这将为沃尔沃品牌增添一种溢价。”But Samuelsson overlooks changes in the market that will squeeze Volvfrom both the bottom and the top. The German Three have been rolling out more and more new models, many at price points that used tbe considered entry-luxe. Buyers shopping for a European brand can now choose between, say, Mercedes three-pointed star and Volvo’s ring and arrow emblem (a symbol for iron in Sweden but representing male sexuality in the U.S). That’s a tough comparison for Volvo.但是萨缪尔森忽视了市场正在发生的变化,这种变化正在高低两端给沃尔沃造成挤压。首先,“德系三巨头”一直在推出新车型,其中不少车型的价格都是过去所谓“入门级豪车”的价格。打个比方,现在想购买欧系车的消费者可以从奔驰和沃尔沃之间选一款。那么他是会选奔驰的“三角星”,还是沃尔沃的圆环加箭头呢(沃尔沃的LOGO造型在瑞典是铁的象征,但在美国则代表着男性象征)?对于沃尔沃来说,这是一个艰难的比较。At the same time, volume brands like Toyota and Hyundai have been steadily adding upgraded features and entertainment, safety, and performance options that used tonly be available on luxury models. That leaves very little space in the middle for brands like Acura, Infiniti, Lincoln – or Volvo. ” “Volvo’s goals aren’t completely unattainable but even if Volvo’s decisions are perfect, the competitive landscape is extremely challenging tthrive and grow in,” says Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst at Edmunds.com., the car-shopping web site.与此同时,像丰田(Toyota)、现代(Hyundai)等平价品牌也在逐步添加高端功能、设施、安全配置和动力选择。这样一来,留给讴歌(Acura)、英菲尼迪(Infiniti)、林肯(Lincoln)或沃尔沃等中端品牌的空间已经很小了。汽车购买网站Edmunds.com的高级分析师杰西卡o卡德维尔指出:“沃尔沃的目标并不是完全不可能达到,但是即便沃尔沃的决策很完美,在如此激烈的竞争环境下,要想复苏和增长还是极具挑战性的。”Tesla finds itself in a different, if not equally difficult, dilemma. Worries are growing that there is a large novelty element attached tthe appeal of his ,000 battery-powered car that will be difficult treplicate as its sales volumes grow. Consumer Reports added fuel tthe worries when it reported that the company has about 2,300 remaining 2014 Model S cars, including showroom display cars, which the company is selling at a discount.特斯拉则陷入另一个同样棘手的困境中。首先是有人担心随着销量的增长,这款价值8万美元的电动跑车所带来的新奇感将逐渐下降。其次是《消费者报告》(Consumer Reports)称,特斯拉目前还有大约2300台没有售出的2014款Model S(包括展车)正在打折销售。One Seeking Alpha blogger figures that more than half of Tesla buyers are what he describes as essentially opportunistic. The Model S became an unexpected addition ttheir fleet of cars, and if it hadn’t been available, they wouldn’t have bought another luxury sedan of any description. “In subsequent years,” he reasons, “there will be lower numbers of purchasers deliberately modifying their normal purchase behaviors in order tget a Model S.”一位主在金融网站Seeking Alpha上指出,购买特斯拉的人中有一半以上可以被称作“机会型购买者”。购买Model S是人们在名下已经拥有的汽车之外的额外消费,如果没有特斯拉,他们也不会转而购买任何一款豪车。他解释道:“在未来几年,特地调整自己的正常购买行为来买入Model S的人将变少。”For Musk treach his outsize targets, he will have taccomplish three things that he hasn’t tried before.要想实现他的宏大目标,埃隆o马斯克必须要完成三件他以前未曾尝试过的事情。He will have tdevelop a robust distribution system that can offer test drives, provide service, and handle trade-ins. State franchise laws are currently limiting Tesla tthe establishment of showrooms that are capable of displaying cars but dlittle else.他必须建立一个强有力的经销网络,以便提供试驾和售后务、处理二手车交易。各州目前的特许经营法律使得特斯拉只能设立一些展厅,除了展示轿车以外,这些展厅几乎做不了其他什么事情。He will have tscale up his production capacity at a rate that the autindustry has never seen before. Musk wants tdouble output by the end of 2015 and make five times as many cars by 2020.他必须以汽车业前所未有的速度提高产能。马斯克希望特斯拉的产能到2015年末翻一番,到2020年增长5倍。He will have tsuccessfully launch his third all-new product, the more affordable Gen III, and make it profitably for less than half of what the Model S sells for. New models are demanding. He’s aly delayed the introduction of his second car, the Model X, several times, and now it isn’t due until 2015’s third quarter.他必须成功地推出第三款全新产品,也就是价格更加亲民的Gen III,并且要在不到Model S一半的价格上使它盈利。新车型要想成功是很难的,马斯克已经数次推迟了第二款车型Model X的发布,现在它可能要等到2015年第三季度才能正式上市。Musk’s Tesla and Geely’s Volvare twvastly different companies with attached narratives that bear little resemblance teach other. But at this point in time, they find themselves in the same predicament: Living up tdates and numbers that give new meaning tthe term “stretch targets.”马斯克的特斯拉和吉利的沃尔沃是两家非常不同的公司,彼此很少有相像之处。但是这一次,他们陷入了相同的窘境:要在设定的时间里完成预定的销量,实现他们的“远大目标”。 /201411/344396九江瑞昌市永修县德安县星子县治疗男性不育多少钱 With hope fading that Microsoft Corp.#39;s new Windows 8 software will reignite computer sales, attention is aly shifting to the company#39;s next big effort to regain relevance: Windows Blue.对微软(Microsoft Corp.)新操作系统Windows 8重振电脑销售的希望变得越来越渺茫。市场注意力也已经转向该公司重振旗鼓的下一个主要项目:Windows Blue。Microsoft has yet to formally define the software project. But Windows Blue is expected to mark a major change in the company#39;s development methodology, replacing major launches of products every several years with frequent updates of features in operating software and applications such as Office.微软还没有正式定义这个软件项目。但是Windows Blue预计将标志着公司发展方式的一个重大改变,不再每隔数年发布重大产品,而是频繁地对操作系统和Office等应用程序进行更新。That model is common in Internet services and apps, markets where Microsoft is determined to play a larger role. Some analysts think Windows Blue will help bring together efforts such as Windows 8─which is targeted at tablets and personal computers─and the Windows Phone software for smartphones.这种模式在互联网务和应用程序中十分常见,微软正下定决心在上述市场中扮演更大的角色。一些分析人士认为,Windows Blue将有助于整合Windows 8和Windows Phone的优势。Windows 8针对的是平板电脑和个人电脑,而Windows Phone针对的则是智能手机。#39;Windows 8 was about birthing a new model of applications, essentially a tablet model,#39; said IDC analyst Al Hilwa. #39;Blue is the next milestone in this plan. It brings the phone and PC platform closer together and makes both more compelling.#39;国际数据公司(IDC)的分析师席尔瓦(Al Hilwa)说,Windows 8是为了催生一个应用程序的新模式,尤其是一个平板电脑的模式。Blue是该计划的下一个里程碑。它使手机和个人电脑平台的关系更加紧密,让这两种产品都更有吸引力。The stakes for Windows Blue rose this week when two market research firms reported that shipments of PCs fell by double-digits percentages in the first three months of this year.Windows Blue的重要性本周进一步上升。两个市场研究公司发布报告说,今年前三个月,个人电脑的出货量出现了两位数的降幅。Figures from IDC and Gartner Inc. released Wednesday showed Windows 8 hasn#39;t spurred much demand for PCs or tablets running the software. IDC leveled particularly harsh criticism at the software, saying some consumers were turned off by its touch-based interface.国际数据公司(IDC)和Gartner Inc.周三公布的数据显示,Windows 8还没有能够刺激人们对搭载该软件的个人电脑或平板电脑的太多需求。国际数据公司对这款软件提出了尤其严厉的批评,称这款软件的触屏交互界面让一些消费者选择放弃购买。The surprisingly steep drop─IDC called it the worst since it began releasing quarterly numbers for the software in 1994─caused a selloff in PC-related stocks Thursday. Microsoft#39;s stock price slipped 4.9% Thursday afternoon to .82, after the company#39;s stock price had touched a six-month high Wednesday.国际数据公司说,这是1994年开始公布这款软件的季度数据以来最糟糕的表现。个人电脑出货量令人惊讶的大幅下降也导致个人电脑相关股票暴跌。微软的股价周四下午下跌了4.9%,至28.82美元。此前,该公司股价曾于周三触及六个月高点。A spokesman for Microsoft had no immediate comment Thursday.微软的一名发言人周四没有立即置评。Hewlett-Packard Co., the largest PC maker and a major Microsoft customer, showed the steepest decline in shipments in the first quarter, with a 24% drop, according to IDC. H-P#39;s stock fell 6.4% to .86 in recent trading.根据国际数据公司的数据,惠普(Hewlett-Packard Co.)第一季度的出货量降幅最大,达到24%。该公司是全球最大的个人电脑制造商,也是微软的主要客户。惠普股价最近下跌了6.4%,至20.86美元。But executives at Microsoft and partners such as Intel Corp. have acknowledged there is more work to do to encourage a wider array of touch-screen computing devices powered by Windows 8, and at lower price points.但是微软以及英特尔(Intel Corp.)等合作伙伴的高管们承认,要想鼓励电脑厂商们推出更多更便宜的Windows 8触屏电脑设备,还有很多工作要做。Intel, which supplies microprocessors that serve as calculating engines in most PCs, is emphasizing a new line of battery-conserving chips that is known by the code name Haswell. The chips are expected to display much more sophisticated graphics and extend battery life on portable computers to eight to 10 hours.英特尔为大多数个人电脑提供微处理器,微处理器相当于电脑中的计算引擎。英特尔目前正在专注于一个代号为Haswell的新型节电芯片产品系列。这些芯片预计将能够展示更复杂的图形,将便携电脑的续航时间延长到八至10小时。Microsoft also has offered price breaks on its Windows software meant for a new class of simple PCs known as netbooks and seems to be responding to a market shift in consumer demand toward smaller tablets.微软还下调了一些Windows软件的价格。这些软件针对的是被称作上网本的新一类简化个人电脑。与此同时,该公司似乎正在对消费者需求转向更小尺寸的平板电脑做出回应。The company last year entered the market itself with the tablet known as Surface, just as products such as Apple Inc.#39;s iPad Mini spurred demand for smaller models. Microsoft is now preparing a similarly small model with a seven-inch display, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.微软去年凭借Surface平板电脑进入这一市场。当时,苹果公司(Apple Inc.)的iPad Mini等产品刺激了消费者对更小型号平板电脑的需求。《华尔街日报》周三报道说,微软正在准备一款类似的小型平板电脑,这款平板电脑将拥有7英寸的显示屏。Executives at Intel and Microsoft have said they expect new computer chips and other advancements to drive down the cost of touch-screen laptops to as low as 0 or 0. For now, there are very few Windows 8 touch-screen computers on the market for less than 0.英特尔和微软的高管说,他们预计新的电脑芯片和其他方面的改进将使触屏笔记本电脑的成本降至500美元或600美元。目前,市场上几乎没有价格低于550美元的Windows 8触屏电脑。Some on Wall Street aren#39;t waiting for a new spark for PC and tablet demand. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Nomura Securities downgraded their recommendations on Microsoft shares on Thursday, contributing to a selloff in the company#39;s shares.华尔街的一些人并没有耐心等待个人电脑和平板电脑需求获得新的提振。高盛(Goldman Sachs)和野村券(Nomura Securities)的分析师周四下调了对微软股票的评级,导致该公司股票被抛售。Goldman said investors should sell Microsoft shares, while Nomura downgraded the stock to #39;neutral#39; from #39;buy.#39;高盛说,投资者应卖出微软股票。而野村券则将这只股票的评级从“买进”下调至“中性”。Goldman Sachs said Microsoft needed to do more to court consumers rather than the corporate customers that are Microsoft#39;s major source of profits.高盛说,微软需要采取更多行动来迎合消费者,而不是作为微软主要利润来源的企业客户。 /201304/234716It#39;s been more than a year and a half since I left Bessemer Venture Partners to join Pinterest. Since then, I#39;ve taken quite a few meetings and phone calls from junior VCs or MBAs asking about my transition from VC to operating. By far, the most common question I get from this bunch is something along the lines of, ;Did you learn anything actually useful in VC?;大约一年半前,我从柏尚风险投资公司(Bessemer Venture Partners)辞职加入了Pinterest。自那以来,我遇到过、也接到过一些年轻风投人或MBA们的电话,询问我是从风投转型到营运的心得。迄今为止,我遇到过的最常见的问题大概就是“你从风投行业学到了什么真正有用的东西?”Yes.是的,我们今天就来聊聊这个话题。1. I learned how to ask the right questions. Anyone can ask questions. But learning how to ask the right questions -- to use questions as a mechanism to uncover the hidden truth in a company#39;s business model, or the tradeoffs in an engineer#39;s architecture, is something that comes with training. VCs spend a huge amount of their time asking questions, and thus learn the craft of asking the right ones. This skill has been enormously valuable to me as I transitioned to Pinterest.1.我学会了提问。任何人都可以提问。但如何提问,并藉此发现一家公司商业模式的真相或者一位工程师架构的妥协,是需要一些训练的。风投资本家花大量的时间提问,因此懂得如何问正确的问题。我转型至Pinterest时,这项技能对我来说极其重要。2. I learned how to people. In my first performance review at Bessemer, people judgment was one of my weaknesses. I#39;d now say it#39;s one of my strengths. As a VC, you#39;re constantly meeting founders and building your pattern recognition for ing people. This skillset is particularly useful when you#39;re in a business or corporate development role but, as with asking the right questions, it#39;s one of those horizontal skills that will serve you anywhere.2.我学会了识人。我在柏尚做第一次绩效评估时,识人是我的一个弱点。现在,我可以说这是我的强项。风投资本家需要经常与创业者会面,需要建立自己的识人模式。处在商业或企业拓展职位时,这项技能特别有用。但正如提问一样,这类横向技能不管走到哪里都能用得上。3. I learned how to learn. In VC, you#39;re constantly ramping up in a new area. Each company you evaluate comes with its own ecosystem that needs to be understood. Similarly, trends in the tech ecosystem turn over so quickly that, if you ever stop adapting and learning, you#39;ll quickly become a dinosaur and won#39;t know a Snapchat when you meet one. That drive to constantly learn will help you adapt to new environments and challenges.3.我学会了学习。风投行业的人经常要硬着头皮了解新的领域。你评估的每一家公司都有独特的生态系统,需要你去了解。类似的,科技生态系统的趋势变化这么快,一旦停止适应和学习,人很快就会变成老古董,连什么是Snapchat都不知道。这种持续学习的动力能帮助你适应新的环境和挑战。There#39;s a flipside to these three though:但这三点也存在另一面:1. In startups, you#39;ve got to answer the questions. One thing I learned early on at Pinterest is that my muscle for asking questions was a lot stronger than my muscle for answering them. As with asking questions, there#39;s an art to answering questions well. It#39;s been good to exercise this skill.1.在初创公司中,你必须回答问题。我在Pinterest很早就了解到的一件事是,我的提问能力远超回答能力。和提问一样,回答也是一门艺术。锻炼这项技能很重要。2. I didn#39;t learn how to an organization. VC firms tend to be smaller partnerships. Although Bessemer was about 45 people when I left, I was never in an office with more than 10 people. As Pinterest has grown from 30-odd people when I joined to more than 200, I#39;ve had to learn how to navigate a company. People who have come from larger companies definitely have a leg up in this regard.2.我不知道如何解读一个组织。风投公司往往是规模较小的合伙企业。虽然在我离开时,柏尚已经有了大约45人,但每次我在办公室里时,办公室里从没超过10个人。随着Pinterest从我加入时的30多人发展到了如今的200多人,我必须学会如何理清公司的结构。来自大公司的人们在这方面当然比我强很多。3. I#39;m not specialized. VCs rarely specialize. Sure -- I knew the e-commerce ecosystem cold, met with countless consumer companies, and quite a few adtech companies, but that doesn#39;t compare to spending several years working at Google. But you#39;ve got to start somewhere ...3.我没有专长的领域。风投资本家很少专长某一领域。当然 -- 我很了解电子商务生态系统,我见识过大量的消费公司和广告科技公司,但这都不比不上在谷歌(Google)工作几年。但凡事总有个开始...Good luck!祝你好运! /201312/268293江西省医院治多囊

萍乡治疗不孕不育检查价格表Gloomy economic news and the wild swings of the stock market may be getting you down. But at least you can count on this: We’ve entered the sweet spot of the iPhone cycle.糟糕的经济新闻和股市的剧烈波动可能会让你感到失望。但至少有一件事可以指望:我们已经进入了iPhone产品周期中的最佳时刻。Since Sept. 19, when the iPhone 6 and its larger sibling, the iPhone 6 Plus, went on sale, consumers have been ordering the gadgets faster than Apple can deliver them. The ripple effects are being felt throughout the economy — and they have been moving the stock market.自从9月19日,iPhone 6和尺寸较大的iPhone 6 Plus上市以来,消费者下单订购的速度就超出了苹果公司(Apple)供货的速度。它们的影响波及了整个经济,甚至影响了股市。“The iPhone is having a measurable impact,” said Michael Feroli, the chief ed States economist for JPMorgan Chase. “It’s a little gadget, but it costs a lot and it seems that everybody has one. When you do the multiplication, it’s going to matter.” He estimates that iPhone sales are adding one-quarter to one-third of a percentage point to the annualized growth rate of the gross domestic product.“iPhone的影响是显著的,”根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的首席美国经济师迈克尔·费罗利(Michael Feroli)说。“这个设备虽然小,但是价格很贵,而且似乎人人都有一部。乘一下就知道这是多大一笔收入了。”他估计,iPhone的销售额能将国内生产总值(GDP)的年化增长率提高四分之一到三分之一个百分点。You may not think of the iPhone as a financial powerhouse. After all, it’s just a consumer good — albeit a highly functional, high-end one that you can carry in your pocket or your purse. Sales typically surge every two years when, as now, Apple does a major iPhone upgrade. You may have the warm and personal relationship with the iPhone that Timothy D. Cook, Apple’s chief executive, described on Monday to Wall Street analysts during a conference call. Apple’s next three months will be “incredibly strong,” he said. And he spoke enthusiastically about the principal reason for this performance: “These iPhones are the best we have ever created and customers absolutely love them.”你可能不会觉得iPhone能推动金融市场。毕竟,它只是一个消费品——尽管它是一款功能强大、可以装在口袋或手包里的高端设备。通常每过两年,当苹果推出iPhone重大升级时,比如现在,就会出现一次销售额激增。你或许与iPhone之间存在一种温馨的私人关系,就像苹果首席执行官蒂莫西·D·库克(Timothy D. Cook)在周一的电话会议上对华尔街分析师所说的那样。苹果的表现在未来三个月里会“异常强劲”,他说。他热情洋溢地谈到了这种状况的主要原因:“新的iPhone,是我们迄今为止推出的最好机型,顾客绝对喜欢。”Whether you love them or not, though, it’s a good moment to recognize their significance as a financial force.但无论你是不是喜欢,现在都应该承认iPhone对于金融市场是一重要的力量。The iPhone’s financial impact starts, of course, with Apple, which is reaping enormous profit from it. As the company disclosed in data embedded in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Monday, it has been selling a broad mix of iPhone models at an average price of 3.iPhone对金融的影响当然从苹果开始,该公司从中赚取了巨额利润。苹果本周一提交给券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)的一份文件显示,它销售各款iPhone的均价是603美元(约合3690元人民币)。That’s not remotely close to the “starting price of 9” that Apple advertises, as I wrote last month. The full price is embedded in service agreements that many customers in the ed States reach with phone carriers. And many of those carriers are stating that full price quite openly. The real starting price for a new, basic iPhone is 9, and models with more memory and bigger screens cost much more.这和苹果公司“199美元起售”的广告相差悬远,我上个月已经写过这个话题。手机的全价包含在与手机运营商签订的套餐务协议中。很多运营商都相当公开地报出了手机的全价,新的基本款iPhone真正的起价是649美元,存储空间和屏幕更大的机型价格还要贵很多。This price structure is lucrative for Apple. “The cost of building a basic phone has stayed at about 0 for years,” said Andrew Rassweiler, senior director for cost benchmarking services, at IHS Technology.这种价格结构为苹果带来了丰厚利润。“多年来,基本款iPhone的成本一直保持在200美元左右,”安德鲁·拉斯维勒(Andrew Rassweiler)说。他是研究机构IHS科技(IHS Technology)负责成本基准比较的高级总监。That estimate doesn’t include many expenses, like research and marketing costs. But it’s a rough guidepost, and it helps explain how, as Apple disclosed in a court filing two years ago, its profit margins for the iPhone are roughly double those for iPads, which tend to be priced more cheaply.以上估计数值没有包含许多开销,比如研发和营销成本。但它可以作为一个粗略的标准,帮助解释为什么像苹果两年前在一份法庭文件中披露的那样,iPhone的利润率差不多是iPad的两倍。iPad的定价往往要低于iPhone。Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, says the gross profit margin for the iPhone is close to 50 percent. Because the iPhone is Apple’s most popular product — with more than 39 million sold in the last quarter — it accounts for a disproportionately large percentage of Apple’s overall profit, somewhere between 60 and 70 percent, Mr. Sacconaghi said.桑福德·伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford C. Bernstein)的分析师托尼·萨克纳吉(Toni Sacconaghi)说,iPhone的毛利率接近50%。他说,由于iPhone是苹果公司最受欢迎的产品——上季度销量超过3900万部,它在苹果总利润中的比重格外大,在60%到70%之间。“Apple is now so big that it takes a lot to make it grow appreciably,” Mr. Sacconaghi said. It’s producing an impressive interrelated ecosystem of products and services, including its forthcoming digital watches, its new digital payment system, its revived Mac line, refreshed iPads and new software operating systems. Even if all of its ventures succeed, none are likely in the next year or two to rival the financial impact of the iPhone. “The iPhone is the core of Apple right now,” he said.“苹果现在已经如此庞大,要想大幅成长,需要付出极大的努力,”萨克纳吉说。苹果正在创造一个不同凡响的生态系统,它由相互关联的产品和务组成,包括即将推出的智能手表、新的数字付系统、经过升级的Mac产品线、新版iPad,以及新的软件操作系统。即使上述项目都大获成功,在未来一两年里,它们产生的金融影响,也不可能与iPhone匹敌。他说,“iPhone目前是苹果的核心。”In a sense, it’s the core of the stock market as well. Apple is the biggest company, by market capitalization, in the world. Apple accounts for about 3.5 percent of the weighting of the Standard amp; Poor’s 500-stock index. And, through Thursday, because its stock has performed magnificently while the overall market has not, Apple accounted for 18 percent of the entire rise of the S.amp;P. 500 index this year, according to calculations by Paul Hickey, co-founder of the Bespoke Investment Group. And the engine driving Apple shares is the iPhone.在一定意义上,iPhone也是股市的核心。苹果是世界上市值最大的公司。苹果在标准普尔500指数(Standard amp; Poor’s 500-stock index)中的权重为3.5%左右。按照贝斯波克投资集团(Bespoke Investment Group)联合创始人保罗·希基(Paul Hickey)的计算,截至周四,由于苹果的股票表现不俗,而股市整体表现不佳,在标普500指数今年的涨幅中,18%是由苹果推动的。而iPhone则是助推苹果股价的引擎。“The market is obviously counting on another strong sales performance for the new iPhone,” he said. So far, it’s getting that performance. And, he said, Apple’s invigorating effect is likely to continue.“市场显然认为新的iPhone销售业绩仍会很强劲,”他说。迄今为止,它的确接近这种表现。而且他说,苹果对股市的刺激效果很可能会持续下去。Because the iPhone is made mainly overseas and sold worldwide, it is stimulating the economy in other regions, particular in East Asia, Mr. Feroli observed, and it keeps a substantial amount of its cash abroad. Such factors make it harder to assess the company’s impact domestically.费罗利说,由于iPhone主要在海外生产,而且在全球销售,它还刺激着其他地区的经济,尤其是东亚。此外,苹果还把大量现金留在海外。综合这些因素,苹果在美国国内的影响就更加难以评估。“It’s not like G.M. having a great quarter,” Mr. Feroli said. “It doesn’t translate directly into employment in the ed States. It’s a more complex world today, and, in that sense, Apple is representative of that world.”“这与通用汽车创造了很好的季度业绩不是一回事,”费罗利说。“它不会直接转化成美国的就业岗位。世界已经变得更加复杂,从这种意义上讲,苹果就是这个世界的代表。”Apple, though, is having a powerful impact in the ed States. Last month, for example, electronic and consumer appliance store sales jumped 3.4 percent while clothing sales fell 1.2 percent, according to Commerce Department figures. “People are buying iPhones, partly as a status symbol,” Mr. Feroli said. “They’re not buying as much clothing.”不过,苹果仍然对美国产生了巨大的影响。例如,商务部的数据显示,上个月,电子产品和家电的销售增长了3.4%,而装销售下降了1.2%。“人们购买iPhone,一定程度上是把它当做身份的象征,”费罗利说,“所以他们减少了装的购买。”Even people who don’t buy iPhones and don’t own Apple shares have a stake in the company. I don’t own any Apple stock, for example, but I do have a stake indirectly through my 401(k) account. That’s because mutual funds in my portfolio own Apple shares as their biggest holdings. Nearly every pension fund holds some stock, and these days, there’s a good chance the biggest holding is Apple. And the most important financial lever at Apple is the iPhone.即使没买iPhone也没有苹果股票的人,也与这家公司利益攸关。例如,我就没有苹果的股票,但却通过401(k)账户与苹果有间接的利益关系。这是因为我的投资组合里的共同基金持有苹果股票,而且是其资产中的最大部分。几乎每养老基金都持有一些股票,现如今,它们持有的可能大部分是苹果股票。而在苹果公司,最重要的金融杠杆就是iPhone。All of that helps explain why Apple is such a formidable force, especially at this stage in its product cycle. And as the holiday shopping season approaches, and iPhones keep flying off the shelves, Apple may well keep moving the world.以上种种都解释了为什么苹果有如此强大的力量,尤其是在其产品周期中的当前阶段。随着假日销售季的临近,以及iPhone的火爆销售,苹果完全可以继续改变我们的世界。 /201411/340978吉安万安县安福县永新县峡江县性激素检查 抚州南丰县崇仁县乐安县宜黄县看少精哪家医院最好的

南昌/华山医院查激素六项费用 During the World Cup games, many of us broke away from the workday to catch the emotional matches. At my office, like at many other companies large and small, we played the games’ live streams from the ESPN app on a big projector. Sure enough, the lag has been bad, as demand has swamped the servers. WatchESPN was outright crashing during theU.S.-Germany game last month.世界杯期间,我们中的许多人都在工作日抽身去看那些令人激动的比赛。和许多大大小小的公司一样,我们公司也用大投影仪通过ESPN客户端来收看实况转播。延迟很厉害,这是一定的,原因是需求让务器不堪重负。上个月美德大战时,ESPN的务器干脆崩溃了。I’m guessing nobody is really surprised, given, as some might recall, the Oscars livestream crashed; HBO Go fizzled during the True Detective finale and Veronica Mars movie backers couldn’t get their free digital downloads on time.我猜没有人真的感到意外,因为可能还有人记得,奥斯卡颁奖典礼的网络直播就崩溃过;《真探》(True Detective)大结局时,HBO的客户端也不能正常使用;《美眉校探》(Veronica Mars)电影版的拥趸同样无法顺利进行免费下载。We’re used to these delays. The Internet literally can’t handle the amount of TV we watch; the idea behind “TV everywhere,” where television broadcasters provide viewers with access to online content via live or on-demand, may be impossible with our current infrastructure.我们对这样的延迟已经习以为常。互联网确实处理不了我们观看的大量电视节目;“电视无处不在”的意思是电视台以直播或点播的方式向观众提供在线内容,但现在的基础设施可能无法实现这样的想法。Netflix NFLX -1.00% takes up about 30% of home Internet bandwidth in North America, and data from Procera estimates that anywhere from 6% to 10% of the online streaming service’s subscribers watched at least one episode of House of Cards Season 2 in its first weekend. Yet House of Cards doesn’t have nearly as many viewers as a moderately successful TV show. A total of 4.6 million people watched the premiere of USA’s Suits, for example, which for a series, is an impressive but not gargantuan hit (but one of my personal favorites!). And that’s not even broadcast, it’s cable. A highly anticipated episode of How I Met Your Mother could pull in close to 11 million viewers.Given such viewership, it seems the Internet literally cannot handle television.奈飞(Netflix)占据了北美约30%的家用互联网带宽。网络数据统计机构Procera估算,《纸牌屋》(House of Cards)第二季播出的首个周末,6%-10%的奈飞用户至少观看了一集。不过,这样的观众规模还赶不上一般成功的电视节目。比如说,美国电视网(USA Network)的《金装律师》(Suits)首次播出时的观众人数为460万。这样的观众规模对一部电视连续剧来说已经很可观,但还算不上火爆异常(不过这是我最喜欢的电视剧之一)。此外,这部电视剧甚至没有以无线形式播出,只是进入了有线电视网络。《老爸老妈的浪漫史》(How I Met Your Mother)中备受期待的一集可以引来近1100万观众。考虑到这样的收视规模,互联网似乎真的没办法承载电视。Because it takes up that whopping 30% of home Internet bandwidth, Netflix is disrupting traditional “peering” structures whereby two or more networks, which are required to be connected at a hardware level, exchange traffic for free. The networks that Netflix connects to are sending significantly more traffic to their peering partners than they’re receiving in return. The extra traffic forces many of these last-mile providers to either spend money to upgrade their infrastructure, or their users will suffer from a degraded viewing experience.由于掌握了高达30%的家用互联网带宽,奈飞打破了传统的对等直联结构,也就是两个或多个网络在硬件层面连接在一起,免费交换数据。奈飞连接的网络向对等网络发送的数据远远超过了从对方那里接收的数据。这些多出来的数据迫使许多这样的“最后一哩”务供应商升级自己的基础设施,否则,用户的收视体验就会打折。Earlier this year, Comcast CMCSA -0.69% and Netflix signed a paid peering agreement designed to improve Netflix’s performance, but that doesn’t change the fact that we are consistently at the limits of bandwidth when it comes to streaming high-quality . Sure enough, a few months later, images of Netflix error messages blaming Verizon for slow bandwidth started going viral online.今年早些时候,康卡斯特(Comcast)和奈飞签署了一份付费直联协议,旨在改善奈飞的节目播出效果,但这个举措并不能改变这样一个事实。那就是,播放高质量视频时我们对带宽的使用总是处于极限状态。可以肯定,几个月后奈飞指责威瑞森(Verizon)影响网速的报错信息截图就会像病毒一样在网上传播开来。I binge-watched the latest season of House of Cards.Even though my wife and I pay for an upgraded Verizon FiOS Internet package, every episode came through in painfully grainy quality. Every now and then, when the scenery barely moved, it would snap into much better focus, only to remind me how bad the viewing quality was. Obviously, as we later learned, the issue wasn’t Verizon to my house, but Netflix to Verizon.我一集不落地看了《纸牌屋》的最新一季。尽管我和我妻子购买了威瑞森的FiOS套餐升级版,每集的画质依然惨不忍睹。时不时地,每次画面基本定格的时候,清晰度就会明显上升,这只能让我想到画面质量究竟有多糟糕。就像我们后来了解到的那样,问题显然不是出在威瑞森到我们家这个环节,而是奈飞到威瑞森。The problem is potentially bigger: Cord-cutters like to talk about being free of the constraints of cable bundles, but the trend I’m seeing is that bandwidth deals could turn into bundles themselves. Imagine you move into a new neighborhood and have a choice of Internet service providers; before you select, you need to do some homework on who has deals in place with the content companies you like to watch over the Internet.问题可能会变得更严重:拒绝有线电视的人喜欢把摆脱有线电视套餐的束缚挂在嘴边,但我看到的趋势是,网络视频务本身也可能以套餐形式出现。想象一下,你搬了家,可以在一些网络务供应商之间进行选择;那么在你做出决定之前,你需要先考察一下,看看哪些网络公司可以提供你喜欢在线观看的视频内容。We truly want “TV everywhere.” Yet when most people talk about problems with Netflix and its ilk, they’re talking about concerns that their subscription rates are going to go up or that some studio is going to pull their favorite movies from on-demand streaming. With theAereo U.S. Supreme Court decision, cord-cutters are now quickly hunting down their next best options. But as long as these bandwidth problems are as glaring as they are (and getting worse) we’re not going to make the strides we need, and the industry won’t be able to deliver the experience that consumers are hungry for. And judging by the fact that Netflix more than doubled its Emmy nomination haul this year, I’d wager they (we) are pretty hungry.我们当然希望“电视无处不在”。然而,许多人谈到奈飞等公司的问题时担心的事情是收费上升,或者某些电影公司把他们最喜欢的电影撤出点播清单。随着美国最高法院裁定网络电视公司Aereo侵犯电视台版权,拒绝有线电视的消费者现在开始迅速寻找次优方案。但只要这些带宽问题一直这么突出(或者变得更糟),我们就没办法大步向前迈进,这个行业也就没办法为消费者提供他们渴望的那种体验。奈飞今年获得的艾美奖提名增加了一倍以上,我得说他们(也包括我们)的期待程度相当高。 /201407/312172宜春市袁州区高安市丰城市做不孕不育的费用九江瑞昌市永修县德安县星子县治疗不孕不育

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