楼主:雅虎移动站 时间:2018年03月19日 08:57:05 点击:0 回复:0
It#39;s time to stop wallowing in pessimismabout the world#39;s future.不要再悲观于世界未来了。Over the past four weeks, we’ve had a runof undeniably good news. A panoply of data has shown that the U.S. economicsystem appears to be on firm ground. More people have jobs, albeit notnecessarily sterling jobs, and the pace of overall activity as measured by GDPis at the highest level in two years, expanding at 4.1 percentannually. On the political front, Congress passed a budget for the first timein more than three years, which suggests a period ahead where Washingtontantrums do not threaten to upend whatever delicate equilibrium currentlyexists.在过去四周时间里,确实发生了很多好新闻。华丽丽的数据表明美国经济正变得稳健。更多人找到工作,虽然这些工作并非都是非常好的工作,总体的GDP是两年来最好的,每年都增加4.1%。在政治领域,国会三年多来首次通过了预算案,表明在未来一段时期内,不管华盛顿政界风云如何变化,都不可能威胁到目前的大好局势。And yet, an aura of unease still seems tohover over us. In the year or more that I have written this column, I haveoften emphasized the way in which things may be going at least a bit right.That contrasts with the frequently repeated mantra that we are goingdangerously off the rails. Of course, like anyone, I may be right or wrong orsomewhere in between. What’s been perplexing about responses to this column,however, isn’t whether the analysis is right or wrong, wise or na#239;ve, but thatthe very hint of optimism makes a fair number of people extremely angry.然而,一种不安气氛依旧笼罩着我们。在我写专栏文章的这一年多来,我一直都强调事情正在好转。与此形成相反的是,坊间还是流传着大量的悲观咒语,说我们正在一步步危险的脱离正轨。当然,像任何人一样,我的看法有对的,也有不对的,或者介于两者之间。然而在看了人们对我文章的回复后,令人费解的他们所关心的并非我所写的东西是对是错、明智的还是天真的,而是对文章中的乐观情绪表现出极度的愤怒。It may be, of course, that my optimism ismisplaced. It may be that the ed States is actually headed to hell in aproverbial handbasket; that Europe is in a brief lull before its next legtoward dissolution of the Union; that Japan’s easy money spigot unleashed bythe new government of Shinzo Abe will end with the same no-exit stagnation ofthe past 20 years; and the glorious story of emerging economies from Brazil toMexico to India to China will end not so gloriously. It may also be thatwhatever appears to be working in the developed world is in truth working onlyfor a small minority—for the wealthy and members of the middle class inprivileged urban areas, and for anyone tethered to financial markets and globalcommerce.当然,也有可能是我的乐观情绪放错位了。或许美国越来越没得救了;欧盟也存在解体的风险;而日本如今的宽松货币政策或许将导致另外一个衰退的20年;而新兴国家比如巴西、墨西哥、印度和中国的经济神话或许不会有灿烂的结局。还有就是不管发达国家如何发展,其最终受益者都是那些都市里的特权中产阶级,或者是金融市场和全球贸易里的商人。But possibly being wrong doesn’t explainthe anger my columns have provoked, in the form of email and online reactions.Weather forecasters and sports experts are routinely wrong about outcomes, andwhile those missed predictions can trigger some ridicule, they’re not usually arecipe for rage.虽然我的乐观情绪可能是不对的,但是这并不能解释为何我的文章会引发这么多的愤怒,有些人发邮件给我表达他们的愤怒,有的直接在网上回复。天气预报和体育专家也有不准确的时候,虽然二者的错误预测可能会引发人们的嘲弄,但并不经常引起人们的巨大愤怒。True, the online world of comments andcommentary skews towards the negative, especially in the realm of economics andpolitics. People are more likely to express feelings based on disagreement anda sense of outrage than they are to react based on concord. Anger is a hotexperience that triggers action; agreement, even strong agreement, tends to bea more passive reaction.是的,网民们的和观点都倾向于消极,特别是在经济和政治议题上。人们更倾向于表达自己的异议和愤怒,而不是赞许。愤怒才能起激发人们行动;而赞许,甚至是强烈的赞许,只是一种更加消极和被动的反应。But why does optimism about today’s worldgenerate such strong hostility? Perhaps because it contradicts what many peoplebelieve. Positive views on the present are seen as a slap in the face by peoplewho have negative experiences, which, according to some polls, is the majorityof Americans. Surveys suggest that more Americans than ever—66 percent,according to one poll—believe that the country is headed in the wrongdirection. Other polls say much the same thing. Two years ago the numberswere even worse. Americans of the past few years are less positive about thefuture than they have been at any point since the 1970s.为什么对如今世界的乐观情绪会激发如此强烈的敌意呢?或者这是因为这与人们的信念相违背了。对那些经历过消极经验的人来说,对现状的乐观情绪就好像是一巴掌拍在他们脸上,而根据一些调查结果显示,大多数美国人都有过消极经验。调查结果表明比以往任何时候都多的美国人——根据一项调查的结果,是66%——认为美国正在朝错误的方向前进。其他民调结果也表明了这一点。而在两年前,这个数据更加糟糕。最近几年的美国人比70年代以来大部分时间里的美国人都更加消极悲观。Interestingly, according to these surveys,blacks and Hispanics in the ed States are more positive about the futurethan whites, perhaps reflecting the degree to which white males have seen theirfortunes decline on a relative basis over the past decades, while Hispanicsespecially have seen significant improvement in incomes andeducation. That said, it is difficult to know the race and gender breakdown ofonline reactions to my political and economic analysis.好玩的是,根据这些研究的说法,美国的西班牙人和黑人比白人对未来更加积极乐观,这或许反映了过去几十年来白人财富在相对缩水,而西班牙人在收入和教育上有了长足的进步。即便如此,在对我的经济和政治性文章做出回复的人中,我们也不知道这些人是由哪种性别和种族构成的。The problem is that in a country of 300million people, let alone a world of 7 billion, any statement about an economicor societal trend is likely to differ from the actual experience of a greatmany people. While there may be upsides to the changing mechanisms of oureconomic system, there are unequivocally winners and losers and many shadesbetween. Any suggestion that the struggles of one group may be juxtaposedagainst, though not offset by, the flourishing of another group can seemdisrespectful and even indifferent to the challenges faced by many people.问题是,在一个3亿人口的国家中,更别提全世界的70亿了,任何对经济和社会趋势所进行的预测都很可能与很多人的实际经验存在反差。虽然经济系统的改变存在好的一面,但是肯定有输家和赢家,还有介于这两者之间的人。一些人的富有与另一些人的贫穷尽管没法抵消,但是可以并行存在,持这种看法的人会被人认为是不敬的和冷漠的。The answer, however, is not to focusrelentlessly on what isn’t working. Every society must find some balancebetween addressing real shortcomings and building on real strengths. The edStates in particular oscillates between excessive self-congratulation (“theindispensable nation,” “the freest nation on Earth”) and extremeself-criticism. We can be making a transition from a manufacturing economy toan idea economy that sees millions finding a new way, and millions suffering.We can be educating millions brilliantly while failing to educate millions atall. We can see thriving urban centers even as suburban sprawl melts under toomuch debt and overpriced homes.然而,问题的并不在于总是关注不好的一面。任何一个社会都得在解决实际缺陷和建立实际优势之间取得平衡。尤其是美国,在过度的沾沾自喜(“不可或缺的国家,”“世界上最自由的国家“)和极端自我批评之间摇摆不定。我们可以做出转变,把美国从一个制造业经济转变成理念经济,从而使有些人找到了新的生活方式,而另外一些人遭受痛苦。我们可以对一些人进行成功的教育,而使另外一些人在教育上失败。我们可以建立起繁荣的都市中心,而与此同时,郊区负债累累、房价高昂。Optimism, as the theoretical physicistDavid Deutsch so brilliantly describes in The Beginnings of Infinity,doesn’t mean surety about good future outcomes. Optimism is simply thecertainty that any human progress to date has been a product of our collectiveability to understand how things work and to craft solutions. The convictionthat the present is a prelude to a bad future negates that collective ability.Yes, we may indeed be at the end of the line, but by angrily dismissingoptimistic arguments we are likely to fail more rapidly. Why bother strivingfor constructive change if you firmly reject the possibility? That leaves onlyone viable alternative: to envision a path forward. That path may notmaterialize, but striving to find it is a vital component of creating thefuture we dream about, and not the one that we fear.正如理论物理学家DavidDeutsch在《无限的开端》中所生动描述的,乐观主义并不是对未来美好结果的保。乐观主义是对我们人类迄今为止所取得的成就是我们集体思考和能力的产物的观念的肯定。而如果你消极悲观的话,那么你就是在否定这种集体智慧和能力。是的,或许我们已经到达了极限,但是如果我们以愤怒的态度来拒绝乐观的言论,那么我们可能会失败得更快。如果你对未来完全没有信心,那进行结构性的改变又有什么意义?所以我们只有一个选择:想象出一条前进的道路。这条道路或许无法实现,但是只有努力探索我们才可能创造出我们想要的未来,而不是我们害怕的未来。 /201312/270975Call it the New Girls#39; Network. At professional services firms in fields like law, accounting, and advertising, the partners who control the biggest share of revenues wield the most influence. For those on their way up, getting there has traditionally meant working closely with senior partners on key client accounts, with the aim of taking them over when the partner retires.姑且把它称为“新女生网络”(New Girls#39; Network)吧。在法律、会计和广告等领域的专业务公司,掌控最大份额收入的合伙人通常影响力最强。对于一心追求进步的专业人士来说,抵达职业高峰的传统途径是,与高级合伙人紧密合作,一起经营关键客户,目的是熬到高级合伙人退休后顺利接管这些资源。For women, that happens less often. So female fast-trackers have found a different strategy: rainmaking, or tapping their networks outside the firm to recruit new clients -- many of whom are women, too.对于女性来说,这种情况很少发生。不过,雄心勃勃的女性职员已经发现了一条全新的晋升策略:造雨(rainmaking),即利用她们在公司外的网络招募新客户——其中许多客户也是女性。That#39;s the finding of a new study co-authored by Forrest Briscoe, who teaches management and sociology at Penn State#39;s Smeal College of Business, and published in the current issue of the Journal of Professions and Organization. Firms that want more diversity at the senior partner level, the study says, can increase revenues at the same time by encouraging even more of the rainmaking that many female junior partners aly do.这是一项研究报告的最新发现,发表在本期《行业和组织》(Journal of Professions and Organization) 杂志上。其执笔人之一是宾夕法尼亚州立大学(Penn State)史密尔商学院(Smeal College of Business)管理学和社会学教授佛利斯特o布里斯科。报告指出,鼓励女性初级合伙人培养更多的客户,可以增强高级合伙人层级的多样性,同时还能够为公司带来更多的收入。The researchers analyzed detailed data from inside a major corporate law firm from 1993 to 2007. They found that both the inheritance and the rainmaking paths to senior partnership are risky. Hoping to inherit clients from a higher-up usually takes years of work on those accounts, with no guarantee of a payoff if the senior partner then decides to pass the baton to someone else.研究人员详细分析了一家大型律师事务所1993年至2007年的内部数据。他们发现,在通往高级合伙人的道路上,继承客户资源和培养新客户都是险招。要想从一位上司手中继承客户资源,往往需要花费数年来经营这些客户,而且不一定能够获得回报,因为这位高级合伙人可能会将接力棒传递给别人。Rainmaking is even riskier, the study says, in part because it takes just as much time and effort but isn#39;t billable unless and until a new client signs on. So a junior partner who invests in building and cultivating a strong outside network ;will risk appearing less productive and profitable; in the short run.培养新客户的风险更大,部分原因是它需要耗费同样多的时间和精力,但这些付出是不计费的,除非一位新客户愿意签约。所以说,如果一位初级合伙人竭尽全力构造和培育一个强大的外部网络,他(她)“在短期内的工作效率和盈利能力很可能面临下降风险。”Even so, for women, rainmaking is often the only option, for reasons that are familiar by now. Most senior partners, and their clients, are still white males who, left to their own devices, usually take other white males under their wing and groom them as successors.即便如此,出于众所周知的理由,培养新客户往往是女性唯一的选择。大多数高级合伙人和他们的客户依然是白人男性。如果让这些人自主行事,他们往往会庇护其他白人男性,并将其培养成自己的接班人。;It#39;s not a conscious decision based on discrimination,; Briscoe says. Rather, he says, it#39;s a question of what sociologists call homophily, or ;a matter of people#39;s #39;comfort zones,#39; where we tend to gravitate toward people who are more like us, or who remind us of our younger selves.;“这并非一种故意歧视女性的决定,”布里斯科说。相反,这是一个被社会学家称为同质性的问题,“事关人们的‘舒适区’(comfort zone)”,他说。这种理论认为,我们往往会被更像自己的人吸引,或是让你想起年轻时的自己的人。Luckily for women, homophily#39;s effects operate outside their firms as well as inside. ;There are many more women now who are in-house counsel at big companies, or who are in other roles where they#39;re choosing professional services firms for their companies,; Briscoe notes, and that often works in female rainmakers#39; favor.幸运的是,对于女性来说,同质性效应不单出现在公司内部,公司外部也一样。布里斯科指出,“现在有越来越多的女性担任大公司的内部顾问,或者为公司选择专业务机构之责的其他角色。”这种情况通常对致力于培养新客户的女性有利。For firms that want to shake things up and change, for example, how clients get passed down through the ranks, Briscoe has two suggestions. First, he says, ;big partnerships don#39;t always look at how clients are inherited. So taking a close look at exactly how those decisions are made would be a good first step.;布里斯科给那些试图革新(比如,改变客户资源沿公司等级阶梯的分配方式)的公司提供了两个建议。首先,他说,“大型合伙制公司并非总是关注客户资源如何被继承。所以,仔细观察公司如何做出这些决定,将是一个良好的开端。”Second, he says, firms might want to support the rainmaking path to senior partnership by allowing more time for networking outside the office. That may well mean recognizing that fewer billable hours now can mean higher revenues, and more women senior partners, down the road.第二,他说,公司可能会允许初级合伙人花费更多时间建立外部网络,以持培养新客户这条通向高级合伙人的路径。这可能意味着承认,现在更少的计费时间意味着未来能够获得更高的收入,更多的女性高级合伙人。 /201405/302093

For 20 years, Christina Steinorth was happy to help one of her close friends with whatever she needed -- last-minute baby sitting, a drive to work when her car was in the shop, countless hours of free marriage advice (Ms. Steinorth is a licensed marriage and family therapist). She didn#39;t expect anything in return.去20年来,无论密友有什么事情需要帮助,克里斯蒂娜·斯泰诺特(Christina Steinorth)一直都乐意帮忙,比如临时受托替她照看孩子、在她车子送去维修时送她上班,以及提供无数个小时的免费婚姻咨询(斯泰诺特是一名持照婚姻家庭治疗师)。斯泰诺特并未期望获得任何回报。When Ms. Steinorth and her husband decided to adopt a baby a few years ago, she asked her pal to write a letter of recommendation. The friend agreed enthusiastically, Ms. Steinorth says, but months went by and no letter arrived. She asked again and the friend apologized profusely, but still no letter. After several more months, Ms. Steinorth asked one more time. Her friend ignored her.几年前,斯泰诺特与丈夫决定收养一个孩子,便请这位好友给她写一封推荐信。斯泰诺特说,朋友热情地答应了,但是几个月过去,她没收到任何信件。她又问了一次,朋友再三道歉,但是依然没有寄信过来。几个月后,斯泰诺特又问了一次,这位朋友干脆置之不理。#39;I learned a very painful lesson -- that she wanted more from me than she was willing to give back, #39; Ms. Steinorth said.斯泰诺特说:“我得到了一个非常惨痛的教训——她更想从我这儿得到帮助,而没那么愿意做出回报。”Have you ever tried to make a withdrawal from the friendship bank, only to find your balance was much lower than you thought it was?你是否也有过想从“友谊”取款,却发现余额远远比你想象的要少的经历呢?Friendship should be more than a series of tit-for-tat transactions: If I do a favor for you, then you will do one for me. Social psychologists call this view of relationships #39;exchange orientation#39; and say it is more suited to business associates or other non-intimate relationships than to loved ones. In our close relationships, we#39;d like to think we give without expecting anything in return.友情不应当仅仅是一系列有来有往的交易:如果我帮了你的忙,你也要帮我一次。社会心理学家将这种友情观称为“交换取向”(exchange orientation)。他们认为,这更适合商业伙伴或其他不太亲近的关系,并不适于与亲友的关系。在一段亲密关系中,我们总是愿意认为自己不求任何回报地付出。But that#39;s just not reality. We do want something from friends -- emotional support, attention, a hand when we need one. Although we may not #39;keep count, #39; we do want to be able to count on them.然而,这并非事实。我们的确会对朋友有所求——情感持、关注以及在我们需要之时伸出援手。虽然我们也许不会“锱铢必较”,但我们确实希望能指望上他们。Researchers have long known we feel bad about a relationship if we believe we#39;re giving but getting nothing back. #39;You need to perceive a balance between the costs and the rewards in a friendship or other close relationship, or there will be relational distress, #39; says David Henningsen, professor of communication at Northern Illinois University.研究人员很早就知道,如果我们认为自己在一段关系中一直付出却得不到任何回报,我们就会对它心生嫌隙。北伊利诺伊大学(Northern Illinois University)沟通心理学教授戴维·亨宁森(David Henningsen)指出:“在友情或其他亲密的关系中,你需要感知到你的付出与收获是平衡的,否则这段关系会出现危机。”People who usually make an effort to help others, without regard to whether they will get something in return, are considered to have high #39;communal orientation.#39; New research from the University of Toronto, published this month in the Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, suggests they are happier than people with low communal orientation.常常尽力帮助他人,不计较他们是否获得回报的人被认为具有很强的“公共取向”(communal orientation)。多伦多大学(University of Toronto)于9月份发表在《社会与人际关系杂志》(Social and Personal Relationships)的新研究指出,这些人比公共取向度低的人更快乐。To study this, the researchers had 232 people rate themselves on a scale of 1 to 7 on 14 statements such as, #39;I often come to the help of others in need, #39; #39;I believe people should go out of their way to be helpful#39; and #39;It bothers me when other people neglect my needs.#39; The research subjects then completed surveys three times a week for one month, recording their levels of self-esteem, positive emotions, relationship satisfaction and love for humanity overall.为了展开这项研究,研究人员让232名受试者就14项描述按一至七分的等级为自己评分,包括“我常常帮助需要帮助的人”、“我认为人们应当竭尽全力帮助他人”以及“别人忽视我的需求时,我心里会不舒”等等。这些受试者接着还要连续一个月每周完成三次调查,记录他们的自尊感、积极情绪、对关系的满足感以及对整个人类的爱的程度。The results: #39;Being a helpful person feels good and contributes to better relationships and greater satisfaction and self-worth, #39; says Bonnie Le, a Ph.D candidate at the University of Toronto and lead researcher on the study.多伦多大学士、该项研究的领头人邦尼·勒(Bonnie Le)称,结果表明“做个有帮助的人会让人感觉良好,有助于增进关系,且带来更大的满足感和自我价值感。”Even so, people with strong communal orientation aren#39;t completely selfless. They do expect their friends will be there if they need them. The risk they run is they won#39;t receive support, or they will even be exploited, by friends or loved ones with low communal orientation.即便如此,公共取向度高的人并非就是完全无私的,他们也期望朋友能在他们需要之时出现。他们面临的风险是得不到持,甚至被公共取向度低的朋友或亲人利用。So what can you do if you tend to give a lot in a friendship and don#39;t always get what you need in return? Start by rechanneling some of your giving. Volunteer for charity or help someone less fortunate. You#39;ll enjoy the benefits of providing help and will be free of the expectation that you will receive something in return.假如你在友情中总是付出很多,可并不是总能获得你需要的回报,你能做些什么呢?从改变你付出的途径开始吧。参与义务慈善工作或帮助更不幸的人。你会享受到帮助他人的乐趣,并且从获得他人回报的期望中摆脱出来。When making a new friend, pay attention early on to the other person#39;s communal orientation. Does he ask about you and actually pay attention to your answer? Is she willing to do something you suggest doing, or work around your schedule? Not everyone is capable of giving at the same level. But if you are aware of who you are dealing with, you will be less likely to have expectations that won#39;t be met.此外,结交新朋友时,早些注意对方的公共取向度。他会问起你并真的会注意你的回答吗?她乐意去做你提议的事情或根据你的时间安排做些变通吗?每个人能付出的程度都不同。但是,如果你了解了你打交道的对象是什么样的人,你对其期望过高的可能性就会降低。Finally, realize that not all relationships can be fixed -- and that#39;s OK. Ultimately, you need to decide who is worthy of your friendship. Learning to have more balanced interactions will help your future relationships.最后,你要知道不是所有关系都能修补的,这真的没关系。归根究底,你需要明确谁值得你付出友情。学会建立更平衡的交际关系有助于你将来的人际交往。Ms. Steinorth, who is 48 and lives in Santa Barbara, Calif., no longer speaks to her former friend. #39;I thought, #39;After all the little things I#39;ve done, all the times I#39;ve been there for you, I ask for just one thing and you can#39;t do it?#39;#39; she recalls thinking. Her former friend did eventually write a nice letter of recommendation, she says, after Ms. Steinorth had her husband make the request. But by then the couple#39;s application was no longer valid.今年48岁、住在加州 巴巴拉的斯泰诺特不再和她以前的那位朋友说话了。她回忆起当时的想法时说:“我想,‘在我做了那么多事情,一直在你身边给你持之后,我只是请你帮忙做一件事,你都做不了吗?’”她说,在她让丈夫提出请求后,那位朋友最终写了一封出色的推荐信,但是那时他们的申请已经失效了。As a result of this experience, Ms. Steinorth says, she #39;holds back#39; a little in her relationships, giving more to people who really need her assistance and can#39;t reciprocate or even say thank you. Instead of cooking three dishes for family get-togethers, she cooks one and makes several casseroles for the homeless. And she volunteers at a Basset Hound rescue organization. She also pays close attention to a new friend#39;s style of communal orientation.斯泰诺特说,由于这段经历,现在她在和人交往时会稍稍有些“保留”,而对真正需要她帮助但不能报答、甚至无法说声谢谢的人给予更多的帮助。她以前会为家庭聚会做三道菜,现在只做一道,然后再为无家可归的人做几道炖菜。她还担任巴吉度犬营救组织的志愿者。现在,她也会密切注意新朋友的公共取向度。#39;It#39;s not my nature, but I don#39;t get hurt anymore, #39; says Ms. Steinorth, who has written a book about communication in friendships and other relationships. #39;I let go of the expectation that everyone wants the same thing from a relationship, because they don#39;t.#39;她说:“这并非我的天性,但这样做我再也不会被伤害了。我摒弃了认为每个人都对友情有着同样期待的想法,因为他们确实不是如此。”她撰写了一本书,论述在友情和其他关系中该如何沟通。 /201310/260529

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